Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.83%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.86%) and 1-2 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
0.29) 
-0.48) 
