SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 7 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Italy | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ukraine win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ukraine win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (7.45%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ukraine | Draw | Italy |
42.2% ( -0.49) | 26.26% ( 0.12) | 31.53% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.82% ( -0.38) | 52.17% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.11% ( -0.33) | 73.89% ( 0.33) |
| Ukraine Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.52% ( -0.41) | 24.48% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.07% ( -0.58) | 58.93% ( 0.58) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.25% ( 0.06) | 30.74% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.99% ( 0.07) | 67% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ukraine | Draw | Italy |
| 1-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 7.45% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.64% Total : 42.2% | 1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.53% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.26% | 0-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 5.24% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 31.53% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Liverpool | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 36 | 15 | 21 | 37 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 15 | 18 | 36 |
| 3 | Aston Villa | 16 | 11 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 20 | 15 | 35 |
| 4 | Manchester CityMan City | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 18 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 27 |
| 6 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 16 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 27 |
| 7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 26 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 26 |
| 9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 24 |
| 10 | Fulham | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 21 |
| 11 | Brentford | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 19 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 23 | -8 | 16 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 14 |
| 17 | Everton | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 18 | Luton TownLuton | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 9 |
| 19 | Burnley | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 8 |
| 20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 16 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 41 | -29 | 8 |
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