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Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 20, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico di Serravalle
FN
San Marino
1 - 2
Finland
Berardi (90+7' pen.)
Vitaioli (24'), Tosi (56'), Capicchioni (68'), Battistini (90+1'), Zafferani (90+4')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Soiri (50', 58')
Galvez (35'), Jensen (90+6')

Form, Standings, Stats

All competitions
Last Game: Kazakhstan 3-1 San Marino
Friday, November 17 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
All competitions
Last Game: Finland 4-0 N. Ireland
Friday, November 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

We said: San Marino 0-4 Finland

A fixture against the group minnows should boost morale and help Finland to go out on a high before entering the playoffs, and their last 12 qualifying wins have seen them keep a clean sheet on each occasion and San Marino are unlikely to threaten ending that record. The hosts are cut adrift and will just be targeting a goal or a 0-0 draw to round off another luckless campaign for the minnows, but both are unlikely. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 93.79%. A draw had a probability of 4.9% and a win for San Marino had a probability of 1.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-3 with a probability of 14.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-4 (13.7%) and 0-2 (12.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.28%), while for a San Marino win it was 1-0 (0.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.

Result
San MarinoDrawFinland
1.28% (0.119 0.12) 4.93% (0.106 0.11) 93.79% (-0.224 -0.22)
Both teams to score 28.01% (2.113 2.11)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
76.12% (0.83199999999999 0.83)23.88% (-0.831 -0.83)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
56.55% (1.098 1.1)43.44% (-1.097 -1.1)
San Marino Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
28.75% (2.15 2.15)71.24% (-2.148 -2.15)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
4.6% (0.698 0.7)95.4% (-0.697 -0.7)
Finland Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.41% (0.070000000000007 0.07)2.58% (-0.0691 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
87.97% (0.25 0.25)12.03% (-0.25 -0.25)
Score Analysis
    San Marino 1.28%
    Finland 93.78%
    Draw 4.93%
San MarinoDrawFinland
Other @ 1.28%
Total : 1.28%
1-1 @ 2.28% (0.096 0.1)
0-0 @ 1.84% (-0.106 -0.11)
Other @ 0.81%
Total : 4.93%
0-3 @ 14.99% (-0.52 -0.52)
0-4 @ 13.7% (-0.37 -0.37)
0-2 @ 12.3% (-0.52 -0.52)
0-5 @ 10.01% (-0.21 -0.21)
0-1 @ 6.73% (-0.335 -0.34)
0-6 @ 6.11% (-0.079 -0.08)
1-3 @ 5.08% (0.284 0.28)
1-4 @ 4.65% (0.291 0.29)
1-2 @ 4.17% (0.205 0.21)
1-5 @ 3.4% (0.235 0.24)
0-7 @ 3.19% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-6 @ 2.07% (0.157 0.16)
0-8 @ 1.46% (0.002 0)
1-7 @ 1.08% (0.089 0.09)
Other @ 4.85%
Total : 93.78%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Kazakhstan 3-1 San Marino
Friday, November 17 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: San Marino 1-2 Denmark
Tuesday, October 17 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: N. Ireland 3-0 San Marino
Saturday, October 14 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: San Marino 0-4 Slovenia
Sunday, September 10 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Denmark 4-0 San Marino
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Finland 6-0 San Marino
Monday, June 19 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Finland 4-0 N. Ireland
Friday, November 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Finland 1-2 Kazakhstan
Tuesday, October 17 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Slovenia 3-0 Finland
Saturday, October 14 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Finland 0-1 Denmark
Sunday, September 10 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Kazakhstan 0-1 Finland
Thursday, September 7 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Finland 6-0 San Marino
Monday, June 19 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
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